China's stability redefines global trade in a volatile era

Containers are unloaded at Qingdao Port, east China's Shandong Province, December 10, 2024. [Photo/Xinhua]

ByMatteo Giovannini

The recent article entitled "In a Storm of Tariffs, Many Companies See China as the Safest Harbor," published in the New York Times, offers a striking reversal of a narrative that has dominated global trade headlines for the better part of a decade. In the wake of renewed U.S. tariff threats, this time not only against China but a wide range of Asian economies, many global companies are now re-evaluating their risk calculations. Surprisingly to some, but logically to many within the business world, China is increasingly being seen as the most stable and predictable place to operate in a volatile world.

This shift is more than just a reaction to U.S. protectionism. It represents a deeper understanding of China's structural advantages, such as infrastructure, policy consistency, skilled workforce and strategic clarity, that continue to make it central to global value chains. Far from being marginalized, China is reasserting its relevance in global trade, not by default, but by design.

Today's global economy is marked by unpredictability. From pandemic disruptions to geopolitical conflicts and supply chain shocks to inflationary pressures, businesses are grappling with a growing set of variables. In this context, what firms value most is not just cost competitiveness, but reliability. And China delivers reliability on multiple fronts.

Its world-class infrastructure, including port networks, high-speed railways, logistics hubs and integrated industrial zones, is unmatched in terms of scale and efficiency. These systems were not built overnight but are the result of decades of long-term investment and meticulous planning. Attempting to replicate this model in emerging markets may be attractive on paper; but in practice, it often leads to higher costs, longer lead times and exposure to political or logistical risk.

Furthermore, China's policy landscape is characterized by a high degree of consistency. While other economies struggle with populist swings or abrupt regulatory changes, China's steady implementation of long-term strategies, such as the 14th Five-Year Plan and the dual circulation model, signals a clear direction to both domestic and foreign investors. In an era where government unpredictability is a real business risk, China's approach stands out.

The U.S. government's recent proposals to expand tariffs on Asian economies, including key players like Vietnam, Thailand and even India, have created a new layer of uncertainty for multinational companies. For years, these countries were touted as alternatives to China, promising lower costs and fewer geopolitical risks. But as they now face the same scrutiny and trade measures from Washington, the logic of exiting China becomes far less compelling.

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on "reciprocal tariffs" at the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., the United States, April 2, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

Indeed, many firms that had been pursuing a "China+1" strategy are now finding that the "+1" comes with hidden costs and complications. While diversification remains a sound principle in theory, in practice it rarely leads to the full relocation of operations. Instead, many companies retain key functions in China, while supplementing with secondary capacity elsewhere.

This hybrid approach often ends up reinforcing China's role as the anchor of global supply chains. From electronics and machinery to green technologies and electric vehicle batteries, China remains the hub around which many global production networks revolve. Even as final assembly shifts to other countries, the intellectual property, raw materials and high-value components often still originate in China.

Rather than resisting this evolution, China is embracing it. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, China is deepening its integration with neighboring economies and emerging markets. This creates opportunities for supply chain complementarities, cross-border innovation and joint development in infrastructure and digital commerce.

These partnerships also serve to hedge against decoupling by creating a broader, more resilient economic ecosystem –one that does not depend solely on access to Western markets. By positioning itself as both a manufacturing hub and a platform for South-South cooperation, China is reshaping global trade flows in a way that is inclusive and forward-looking.

China is not only a defensive play in uncertain times, but also a proactive engine for future industries. The country leads the world in renewable energy technology, electric vehicles and digital infrastructure. Its emphasis on green transformation, high-tech manufacturing and digital finance signals a transition from quantity-driven to quality-driven growth.

This evolution makes China an even more attractive partner for global companies that are looking to innovate and scale up quickly. For example, China's dominance in battery supply chains and rare earth processing gives it strategic leverage in the clean energy transition. Its digital economy, powered by a vast consumer base and a dynamic ecosystem of fintech and e-commerce platforms, offers fertile ground for experimentation and growth.

As global trade becomes increasingly fragmented and geopolitical tensions rise, China's role is evolving, not shrinking. It is no longer simply the "factory of the world," but a strategic anchor in a multipolar economic system. The recent shift in perception among global companies, seeing China as the safest harbor, underscores a broader truth: In a world full of uncertainty, China's scale, capabilities and consistency remain unparalleled.

Rather than seeking to isolate China, the international business community is recognizing the value of deeper engagement on pragmatic, commercial and strategic terms. The narrative of decoupling is giving way to one of recalibration, with China no longer at the periphery but at the very center of global trade.

Matteo Giovannini, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a finance professional at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, a non-resident associate fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, and a member of the Global Young Leaders Dialogue.